1) The National Snapshot

NAHB’s data underscores a nationwide affordability squeeze: roughly two-thirds of households are priced out of a median new home under their assumptions. That’s the big picture. Now let’s zoom in.

2) New York State: Higher Prices, Higher Qualification Bar

In New York State, the affordability hurdle rises even higher. Using NAHB’s assumptions (including a 6% mortgage rate), the statewide figures show:

• Median new home price: $656,108
• Income needed to qualify: $204,163
• Estimated monthly mortgage payment: $3,822
• Estimated monthly taxes & insurance: $942
• Households unable to afford: 80.53%
• Households priced out per $1,000 price increase: 4,481

The takeaway is simple: even small increases matter. A $1,000 bump in the median new home price pushes thousands more households out of reach statewide.

3) Syracuse Metro: Lower Prices, But Still a Severe Affordability Gap

Now compare that to the Syracuse Metropolitan Area:

• Median new home price: $452,168
• Income needed to qualify: $153,217
• Households unable to afford: 78.83%
• Households priced out per $1,000 price increase: 262

Even with a lower median price than the statewide number, the Syracuse metro area still has nearly 4 out of 5 households unable to afford a newly built home under the same model.

4) The Upfront Cash Hurdle: What Buyers May Need Before “Normal” Closing Costs

Beyond monthly payments, the real world has another gatekeeper: cash needed up front. Using the Syracuse median new home price ($452,168) and assuming a 10% down payment:

Note: the 2.6% figure is a practical mid-range estimate of the effective property tax burden locally and is intended to reflect the combined impact of school, town/city, and county taxes in many Onondaga County locations (actual bills vary by municipality, exemptions, and assessments).

And that’s before the usual “closing table lineup” (title insurance, lender fees, appraisal, attorney, inspections, prepaid interest, and other prepaid/escrow items). For many households, the upfront cash requirement is the hidden wall, even if the monthly payment is theoretically manageable.

5) A Policy Point for Local and State Officials

Affordability isn’t only a market story. It’s also a policy story. The Syracuse data shows that a $1,000 increase in home price prices out about 262 additional households. A reasonable implication is that a comparable $1,000 increase in annual property taxes could have a similar directional impact on affordability. Even half that amount, $500, could affect roughly 131 households.

That’s why both local and state officials matter here. State policy influences local tax structures and the overall cost stack buyers face. When affordability is this fragile, taxes and fees can be the difference between “qualified” and “priced out.”

6) A Fairness Question: Incentives for Big Development vs. Homebuyers

In Onondaga County, it’s not uncommon for major projects to receive meaningful relief through development incentives, including sales tax exemptions on materials and, in some cases, relief tied to mortgage recording costs. That raises a simple question: if we can incentivize large-scale development, why not consider time-limited relief for new homebuyers or homebuilders to help expand housing supply?

For example, a temporary program that reduces or offsets certain taxes or fees for newly built homes (even for one year) could lower the upfront cash hurdle and stimulate construction, helping address the housing inventory shortage.

Bottom Line

Nationally, affordability is tight. In New York State, it’s tighter. And in Syracuse, even with comparatively lower prices, the share of households unable to afford a median new home remains extremely high. If we want to move the needle, we have to look at the full stack: price, rates, taxes, fees, and policy.