Housing Affordability and the $300,000 Question: National Reality vs. Onondaga County

Real estate markets do not operate in a vacuum, and neither should the advice given to buyers and sellers. Today’s real estate agents are expected to understand not only local pricing trends, but also broader economic and affordability forces that shape consumer decisions. We publish market insights like this to help agents stay informed, strengthen client conversations, and better explain how national housing trends intersect with local conditions here in Central New York.

One national data point in particular has important implications for those conversations: the growing number of American households that can no longer afford homes priced at $300,000 or more.

What NAHB’s Affordability Pyramid Tells Us

A recent analysis from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), sometimes referred to as the “housing affordability pyramid,” examines how many U.S. households can qualify for homes at different price points based on typical underwriting assumptions, prevailing mortgage rates, and household incomes.

The headline finding is sobering: more than half of U.S. households cannot afford a $300,000 home under current conditions. The analysis also shows that affordability declines sharply as prices rise beyond that level, while the national market has continued to push prices higher, particularly for new construction.

How Does Onondaga County Compare?

National affordability statistics can feel abstract, so it helps to anchor the discussion in local data. Based on MLS-based market summaries from the Greater Syracuse Association of REALTORS® (GSAR) and the Central New York Information Service (CNYIS), Onondaga County’s recent sale prices highlight an important distinction between the “median” and the “average.”

• Median sale price (approx.): $270,000
• Average sale price (approx.): $330,000

The median price reflects the “middle” sale (half of homes sold for more and half sold for less). The average sale price can be pulled higher by higher-priced properties, including some new construction, move-up homes, and homes in higher-demand submarkets. In plain terms: a meaningful share of local buyers are already purchasing homes near or above the $300,000 level.

What the Numbers Reveal

1) Onondaga County is more affordable than many markets, but not immune.

Compared with many areas of the country, our local prices are still relatively attainable. However, an average sale price above $300,000 places a growing portion of the local market right in the range NAHB identifies as unaffordable for most U.S. households.

2) Even “median priced” homes can feel expensive in monthly payment terms.

Buyers do not purchase a price tag. They purchase a monthly payment. When you factor in mortgage rates, taxes, insurance, and other household debt, affordability pressures can appear even when the median sale price seems reasonable on paper.

3) New construction often raises the affordability bar.

Newer housing stock typically costs more to build and more to buy. That means many new homes will naturally cluster above the median, which is consistent with NAHB’s broader point: there are not enough homes being produced at price points that match typical household incomes.

Housing affordability is no longer an abstract national issue. It is a practical, day-to-day reality shaping buyer and seller decisions in markets like Onondaga County. National data from NAHB highlights how quickly affordability drops as prices rise above $300,000, while local GSAR and CNYIS market summaries show that a growing share of homes in our area are selling near or above that level.

For real estate agents, understanding both perspectives matters. National trends help explain broader affordability pressures, while local sales data provides the context needed to advise clients realistically. When agents can connect these data points clearly, they are better positioned to guide buyers, set informed expectations for sellers, and reinforce their role as trusted market advisors in an increasingly complex housing environment.

Sources

• National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) – Eye on Housing: “Affordability Pyramid Shows Over Half of U.S. Households Cannot Buy a $300,000 Home” (February 2026)
• Greater Syracuse Association of REALTORS® (GSAR) / Central New York Information Service (CNYIS) – Onondaga County MLS-based market summaries (median and average sale price figures cited above)