Key Takeaways: New-Home Affordability in Central & Western NY (2025)
- Syracuse (Onondaga County proxy): The median new home is $516,253; income needed is about $185,280. Roughly 89.2% of households cannot qualify.
- Rochester: Median new home $559,998; income needed around $202,511. About 90.5% of households are priced out.
- Buffalo–Cheektowaga: Highest prices locally—median new home about $766,230; an estimated 92.8% of households are unable to qualify.
- Statewide (New York): Median new home about $690,141, with 84.7% of NY households priced out.
- What’s behind it: Limited buildable land + cumulative regulation slow supply and push costs beyond local incomes—making “median” new homes unattainable for most buyers.
- Why it matters for buyers & agents: Focus on monthly payment strategies (rate buydowns, closing-cost credits), value-engineered plans, and clear education about qualifying income.
Sources: NAHB Priced-Out Estimates 2025 — MSA tables (Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo); State tables (New York); NAHB summary of Glaeser & Gyourko on supply constraints.
Contact Form
Can New Homes Pencil Out in Central & Western NY?
NAHB’s latest research Syracuse NY Housing Affordability (2025) data for Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, and New York State
Why this matters: New research highlighted by NAHB explains why it’s getting harder to add housing—more rules, scarcer land, slower approvals— and how that shows up in affordability. NAHB’s 2025 Priced-Out tables estimate how many households can qualify for a mortgage on the median-priced new home in each market.
What the numbers say
- Syracuse (Onondaga-anchored): About 9 in 10 households can’t qualify for the median-priced new home.
- Rochester: Income needed tops $200k; affordability is even tighter at 90.5% unable.
- Buffalo: Highest median new-home price and 92.8% unable.
- Statewide: 84.7% of NY households can’t afford the median new home.
Why supply and rules matter
NAHB’s summary of a new economics paper by Edward Glaeser (Harvard) and Joseph Gyourko (Penn) argues the “suburban frontier” has narrowed: less buildable land and cumulative regulation slow production and push prices beyond what local incomes can support. NAHB’s prior work estimates that government rules add roughly $93,870 to the price of a typical new single-family home nationally.
What buyers & agents can do
- Ask builders about value-engineering, energy-efficient designs, and rate buydowns.
- Advise clients on total cost (monthly payment, not just price) and locking when appropriate.
- Support local policy that shortens approval timelines and right-sizes fees.
Robert Smith — NYS Licensed Real Estate Broker; NYS Licensed Real Estate Instructor (CDEI); 40 years’ experience in the real estate industry; served over a decade as Chair of the Town of Cicero Planning Board. Mr Smith and his wife own and operate the Professional Career Center, a NYS Licensed Real Estate School in Syracuse, New York.
Sources & Further Reading
- NAHB blog: America’s Housing Supply Crisis: Is the Suburban Frontier Closing? (Aug 2025). Read summary.
- NBER Working Paper: Glaeser & Gyourko (2025), America’s Housing Supply Problem: The Closing of the Suburban Frontier? Download paper.
- NAHB Priced-Out Estimates 2025 — MSA tables (Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo), State tables (New York), Methodology.
- NAHB (May 2021): Regulation now accounts for $93,870 of the average new home price. Article.